The September 2022 Monetary Base declined month-to-month by 3.1% (-3.1%), having gained 1.5% in August, but down year-to-year by 15.3% (-15.3%) to $5.41 trillion in September, versus an 11.8% (-11.8%) annual drop in August; such still was 56.6% above its Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), but down from the 61.6% gain in August. -- With fundamental U.S. Dollar debasement (inflation) intensifying, irrespective of short-lived games with reduced oil prices, holding physical Gold and Silver protects the purchasing power of Ones assets, irrespective of any near-term Central Bank or other precious metals price machinations to the contrary. 2022 Jul. (April 5th) U.S. GOVERNMENT FISCAL CONDITIONS/ CRISES Grievously malfeasant U.S. Government fiscal policies continue to contribute meaningfully to the rapidly accelerating pace of U.S. Inflation. The dominant Reserves component declined month-to-month by 5.3% (-5.3%) and year-to-year by 25.3% (-25.3%) in September, to $3.134 trillion, following an annual drop of 20.1% (-20.1%) in August, still 89.0% above its PPT. Headline CPI-U year-to-year inflation in September 2022, which tends to run lower than the CPI-W over time, was up year-to-to-year in the month (not quarter) by 8.2%, versus 8.3% in August, versus ShadowStats Alternate estimates of 16.4% in September, down from 16.5% August. Services include customized forecasts and analyses of the general economy, presentations and consultations in-house for clients. The consumer price index increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. - Despite regular, extreme monthly instability in New Home Sales, September 2022 closed out the fifth consecutive quarter of year-to-year decline, and the second-consecutive quarterly decline in this Census Bureau Series. Background definitions and related detailed discussion, historical data and graphs for each of the Money Supply Series were covered in Benchmark Commentary No. The agency ensures Canadians have the key information on Canada's economy, society and environment that they require to function effectively as citizens and decision makers. Table 1. 7: Since the MPCs previous meeting, government bond yields and risky asset prices had been volatile in major advanced economies. The University of Michigans October 2022 Consumer Sentiment (October 28th) held shy by 40.7% (-40.7%) of recovering its Pre-Pandemic Peak. Again, an updated discussion follows in No. Some indicators of business sentiment have weakened, although they have so far remained more resilient than indicators of consumer confidence and consistent with positive underlying GDP growth. FLASH (October 14th): Consistent with slowing/ contracting Consumer activity, September 2022 inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales completed what had been an unfolding Third-Quarter 2022 quarter-to-quarter drop; showing an annualized 3.8% (-3.8%) quarterly contraction, following a 0.4% annualized gain in Second-Quarter 2022, with a Third-Quarter 2022 year-to-year gain of 0.6%, following a Second-Quarter 2022 decline of 0.1% (-0.1%). This is down from its prior 251,000, and initial 240,000 estimates, not forgetting that the now-defunct initial jobs recovery/ expansion reporting in July 2022 was of a 32,000 jobs gain against its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak. An old friendthe late-Doug Gillespieasked me some years back to write a series of articles on the quality of government statistics. The S&P Global/CIPS PMI composite input price index had risen to a record high level in May. On a monthly basis, both CPIH and CPI rose by 0.6% in July 2022, compared with no change in July 2021. FLASH (October 13th): Based on Third-Quarter 2022 CPI-W, the headline adjustment to Social Security payments will be 8.7% beginning January 2023, but that would be 17.0% per ShadowStats Alternate CPI estimate of headline inflation net of the gimmicks added in 1982 and after to depress headline CPI estimation - CPI reformulation began after the COLA hit 14.3% in 1980 and 11.2% in 1981. The further increases in risk-free rates that had occurred since the May MPC meeting would be expected to feed through to lending and deposit rates in due course. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. (October 19th) SEPTEMBER 2022 NEW RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION and RELATED EXISTING AND NEW HOME SALES [Updated October 26th] September 2022 Building Permits and Housing Starts continued in a pattern of collapsing monthly, quarterly and annual activity, consistent with a deepening, new economic Recession (Census Bureau, updated October 21st for September Existing Home Sales). Bank staff now expect GDP to fall by 0.3% in the second quarter as a whole, weaker than anticipated at the time of the May Report. Happy FOMC economic musings aside, consistent with a contracting domestic economy, the November 1st estimate of Third-Quarter 2022 Real Construction Spending continued in deepening annual collapse for the fourth straight quarter, down by 10.0% (-10.0%) year-to-year, and down at an annualized quarterly pace of 16.7% (-16.7%), which was the fourth quarter-to-quarter contraction in the last five quarters. The strength of food price inflation across the three economies had been similar in the latest data, partly reflecting the importance of global developments for agricultural prices. The Federal Reserves November 2022 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting hiked the Federal Funds Rate by 0.75% (75 Basis Points), holding other policies in check. The inflation rates of around nine tenths of the 85 class level categories by weight in the CPI basket had been above their pre-pandemic averages in April, compared to around half in the summer of 2021. 1: Before turning to its immediate policy decision, the Committee discussed: the international economy; monetary and financial conditions; demand and output; and supply, costs and prices. Designed to reverse the inflation-reduction methodological gimmicks of the early 1980s, and after, the headline ShadowStats Alternate Inflation Index in the September 2022 CPI-U continued to soften, easing to 16.4% year-to-year, from 16.5% in August and 16.8% in July in tandem with falling gasoline prices, previously having jumped to 17.3% in June, from 16.8% in May, versus 16.5% in April and 16.8% in March 2022, on top of the underlying headline CPI-U rebound, up from 16.0% in February, 15.6% in January, 15.1% in December 2021 and 14.9% in November. The Committee will be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response. January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions Any updated publication information will be advised here. Such should continue to take a large bite out of inflation-adjusted Real Growth in pending September 2022 Construction Spending, keeping the Real, Inflation-Adjusted series negative month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year [See the earlier October 3rd August Construction Spending section]. For more information on how these cookies work please see our Cookie policy. 0.0 pts (year-over-year change) Selected geographical area: Nova Scotia. Learn how Statistics Canada keeps your data safe and protects your privacy. Again, with the recovery from the Pandemic-driven collapse retrenching and flub-a-dubbing, continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus likely will continue through 2022 and well into 2023, reflecting continuing evolution of the Pandemic, and despite Financial-Market huffing and puffing to the contrary, and bi-furcated FOMC happy hype. [See updated October 18th Industrial Production paragraphs on September 2022 Production recovering its 2018 peak.] The Economic Community largely does not recognize these dates and timing, at present. According to market participants, the recent movements had in part reflected the rising yield differential between shorter-term government bond yields in the United States compared to those in the United Kingdom, and perceptions of the UK growth outlook. HURRICANE DISRUPTION is possible to the ShadowStats Site in the next day or two, where Tropical Storm Nicole is expected to make Florida landfall, tonight, as a hurricane, [our server is located in Orlando, in the projected path of the storm]. 33: The MPC sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. These members put a higher weight on the prospect of more resilience in demand or shortfalls in supply or both, such that cost and capacity pressures would remain relatively strong over the forecast period. 22: The Committee discussed the strength of UK inflation from a cross-country perspective. Discover the story of our country and its people using census data collected every fiveyears. Where that current headline 804,000 jobs expansion, beyond the prior February 2022 Pre-Pandemic Peak level is good news, it still remains shy by about 5,600,000 jobs, or 3.5% (-3.5%) of where it would be, had the U.S. economy continued its relatively stable trends, in place before the externally driven Pandemic shutdown. I also have, This material is provided under the ShadowStats.com. 18: The Chancellor of the Exchequer had announced a 15 billion Cost of Living Support package on 26 May. (October 28th) Final October 2022 Consumer Sentiment - Holding 40.7% (-40.7%) [initially 40.8% (-40.8%)] below Pre-Pandemic levels, the University of Michigans October 2022 Consumer Sentiment confirmed the preliminary reading earlier this month, inching up just 1.3 index points from September. Based on Third-Quarter 2022 CPI-W inflation, the 2022 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) headline increase is 8.7% for payments beginning January 2023; per the ShadowStats alternate estimate, it would have been 17.0%, had the CPI-W calculations not been redefined following the CPI Inflation and COLA spikes of 1980/ 1981. Despite Talk of Tightening in 2022 or 2023, FOMC Is Easing Anew in Its Latest Actions, Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard The latest official data continued to suggest that momentum in labour market activity had been sustained, and there had been no signs from other timelier indicators of employment of an imminent deterioration. While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago Last week, the continuing year-to-year decline in the more-stable September 2022 Existing Home Sales series deepened to 23.8% (-23.8%) [National Association of Realtors], while Third-Quarter 2022 Housing Starts and Building Permits showed respective, deepening, consecutive quarter-to-quarter annualized contractions of 38.2% (-38.2%) and 28.7% (-28.7%) [Census Bureau]. 17: Some indicators of corporate sector sentiment had weakened since the MPCs previous meeting, although they had remained more resilient than indicators of consumer confidence and, based on pre-Covid relationships, were consistent with positive underlying GDP growth. The Third-Quarter 2022 U.S. Real Trade Deficit in Petroleum narrowed at an annualized pace of 76.7% (-76.7%), a positive contribution to GDP growth, reflecting an annualized quarterly surge of 49.0% in Exports, net of an 11.0% annualized gain in Imports. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose from 7.0% in March to 9.0% in April, close to expectations at the time of the May Report, and triggering the exchange of open letters between the Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer that is being published alongside this monetary policy announcement. Headline CPI-U year-to-year inflation in September 2022, which tends to run lower than the CPI-W over time, was up year-to-to-year in the month (not quarter) by 8.2%, versus 8.3% in August, versus ShadowStats Alternate estimates of 16.4% in September, down from 16.5% August. As will be explored in the pending Commentary, the U.S. economy is and has been much weaker than advertised, not overheating, and the soaring inflation, which is much worse than headlined, again, primarily is being driven by the Feds excessive Money creation, not by an overheating economy, in a policy conundrum previously noted here by ShadowStats. The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold The slowdown had continued to be most marked in indicators of consumption. I N F L A T I O N - FLASH (October 27th): On the inflation front, the initial estimate of the understated Third-Quarter 2022 GDP Implicit Price Deflator (IPD) [resulting in overstated Third-Quarter Real GDP growth], came in at 6.94% year-to-year inflation, down from 7.62% in Second-Quarter 2022. For those interested in a ShadowStats Subscription, please see the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). ShadowStats postings of the June 2021 Commentary and before - back to 2004 - are open to all, accessible by clicking on Archives, at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage. If you have been selected for a survey, find the answers to all your questions. On an irregularly volatile, seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis, headline September 2022 Real Construction Spending declined by 0.1% (-0.1%) following an unrevised 0.9% (-0.9%) decline in August, and a revised July 2022 drop of 4.0% (-4.0%) [previously 5.3% (-5.3%), initially 5.2% (-5.2%)].
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